Lesson 13: Where to Go From Here

The Hope and the Challenge

If you’ve made it this far, you probably feel a strange mix of emotions.

Hope: You now understand the principles of statistical testing. You know why small samples mislead, how to design proper experiments, and what sample sizes you actually need. You can distinguish real effects from random noise. You have the tools to avoid wasting time and components chasing ghosts.

Despair: You realize just how much work proper testing requires. Thirty-shot groups aren’t quick or cheap. One variable at a time testing means you can’t just “try everything and see what works.” The methods you’ve been reading about online for years, the ones that seemed so simple and accessible turn out to be statistically unreliable.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: You’re probably wondering if there’s a better way to bridge the gap between statistical theory and practical application.

There is.

What This Curriculum Gave You (And What It Didn’t)

What You Now Have:

✅ Statistical literacy - You understand sampling behavior, confidence intervals, and why sample size matters

✅ Critical thinking - You can evaluate testing claims and spot statistical red flags

✅ Methodology - You know the principles of proper experimental design

✅ Realistic expectations - You understand what precision is actually achievable

✅ Foundation - You can now learn advanced techniques without falling for myths

What You Still Need:

❌ Internal ballistics expertise - Understanding what’s actually happening inside the chamber and barrel

❌ Analytical tools - Information and techniques to model and predict load behavior

❌ Practical workflow - Efficient methods to apply these principles without burning through components

❌ Personalized guidance - Someone who can answer YOUR specific questions about YOUR specific setup

❌ Advanced techniques - Professional-level methods used by ballisticians and competitive shooters

Why This Curriculum Exists

Before we talk about professional training, you deserve to know why this curriculum exists at all.

This is my gift to the shooting community

Why create a free statistics curriculum when professional instruction costs money?

Because I love the shooting sports and I saw a desperate need for this foundational knowledge in the community. I’ve watched countless shooters (including myself) waste money and time on methods that can’t work because they lack the statistical literacy to evaluate testing claims critically.

This curriculum gives you that foundation.

But statistics alone isn’t enough. You also need to understand internal ballistics, analytical tools, and practical workflow. That’s what professional instruction provides. That’s where expertise like Blake’s becomes invaluable.

The reality: Comprehensive methodologies backed by solid statistical rigor exist, but they’re not given away for free on the internet. Professional expertise, refined testing protocols, and advanced analytical tools require investment to develop. Those who’ve done that work deserve to be compensated for it.

My hope: This free curriculum prepares you to get maximum value from professional instruction, whether that’s Blake’s courses or another data-driven instructor. You’ll understand the terminology, recognize proper methodology, and be equipped to apply what you learn.

My excitement: I’m genuinely curious to see where your imagination and creativity take you with these tools. The hints and links I’ve provided throughout offer basic ideas for statistical analysis. What you build on that foundation is up to you.

Now let me introduce you to the person who changed my entire approach to reloading.

Blake Williams: How We Met and Why I Trust Him

I want to introduce you to someone I consider both a friend and a mentor in this field: Blake Williams, founder of Reloading All Day.

I wasted tens of thousands of dollars chasing my tail. (Pun intended.)

I ran OCW tests. Audette ladder tests. Velocity node tests. Hundreds of them. I convinced myself I was finding convergence points, flat spots, and sweet spots. I’d get excited about patterns in my data. I’d load up batches based on what my tests “proved.”

And then they wouldn’t replicate.

I’d shoot a different day, different conditions, or just with a larger sample size, and the magic would disappear. What I thought was a node at 41.4 grains would shoot no better than 41.0 or 41.8. What I thought was the perfect seating depth based on a 3-shot OCW test would produce mediocre results in a 30-shot validation.

Despite my technical background, I ignored my own training and believed the “experts” online. I wanted these methods to work because they were efficient, they were popular, and everyone else seemed to be having success with them. Emotions and desire took precedence over logic and reason. Even with my background, I still believed what my fellow shooters told me. I was biased and there was intense emotional pressure to support those biases.

After trying all the various reloading methods commonly touted online, then resorting to actual statistical testing with proper sample sizes, I realized a devastating truth: none of them consistently worked. Once I started testing using statistically sound practices (because firearms still obey the laws of physics), I realized the task of characterizing all available components was nearly impossible. Many of the examples used to illustrate these lessons are my own stories!

This led to a moment of genuine despair.

I put down reloading entirely. I was done.

Then the algorithm found Blake.

I was scrolling Instagram one day when @reloadingallday appeared. What caught my attention INSTANTLY was seeing someone show rigorous testing results with statistically significant sample sizes—30, 50, 100+ rounds per condition. Real confidence intervals. Full data sets, not cherry-picked groups.

One email. One phone call. I signed up for his Advanced Load Development class.

That class started a professional relationship that turned into a genuine friendship.

Blake is truly an upstanding human being, and I’m honored to call him a friend.

Full disclosure before I go any further: I have ZERO affiliate relationship with Reloading All Day. I don’t get paid if you take his courses. I receive no compensation of any kind. When I created this curriculum outside his knowledge and offered it as a Christmas gift, Blake emphatically refused it. After multiple “arguments,” he finally said, “Just keep it and I’ll reference it.”

That’s the kind of integrity you’re dealing with.

Why I’m recommending Blake specifically:

Professional credentials:

• Ballistician for Shooter’s World Propellants
• Has been handloading since age 14
• Conducts real ballistics studies in controlled lab conditions with proper sample sizes
• Develops data-driven testing methodologies used by serious competitors
• Publishes results on Instagram and his website—even when they contradict popular beliefs or his own hypotheses

Personal qualities that matter:

• Someone I genuinely trust as a person, shooter, and confidant
• Passionate about helping others learn proper methodology, not just selling courses
• Takes a non-biased, data-driven approach to every question
• Challenges myths (including his own assumptions) with rigorous testing
• Personable, professional, and kind, but won’t give you easy answers when the truth is complex

What makes Blake different from other instructors:

Blake doesn’t just hand you fish. He teaches you to fish.

Instead of giving you “the answer” for seating depth or powder charge, Blake provides a fundamental, trustworthy base of knowledge about internal ballistics—what’s actually happening inside your rifle at a physics level so you can make informed decisions about YOUR specific setup.

In truth, there is a shortcut to avoiding wasteful testing. That shortcut is fundamental knowledge of internal ballistics. Blake is the only professional I could find who would answer my questions with statistically backed evidence.

There are many self-appointed experts in the firearms industry. Some vendors make wild claims without proper evidence. I caution readers to educate and arm yourselves with the ability to discern fact from fiction. That education starts with a fundamental understanding of statistics (which you now have) and continues with understanding internal ballistics (which is what Blake teaches).

The evidence for his approach:

Blake has published controlled studies on topics like seating depth effects and primer selection, the same studies referenced in Appendix B of this curriculum. He tests with proper sample sizes, uses statistical analysis, and publishes results even when they contradict his own hypotheses or popular beliefs.

He posts many of his rigorous study conclusions on Instagram for public viewing. No paywalls on basic findings. No gatekeeping of fundamental truths.

That’s the kind of intellectual honesty and rigor you need in an instructor.

What I learned from Blake (and from being wrong):

Blake and I have had countless discussions. I’ve been wrong more times than I can count. Sometimes the “obvious answer” isn’t the truth. That’s the beauty of applying the scientific method. It’s an emotionaless process for testing and learning about the world around us.

The lessons I learned:

1. Even expertise in other fields doesn’t protect you from statistical fallacies - My degrees and decades of experience meant nothing when I wanted to believe popular methods worked

2. Popular ≠ Effective - The most discussed methods aren’t necessarily the most reliable

3. Data beats opinion — but only if you collect enough of it and analyze it properly - Small samples lie

4. Sometimes the “obvious answer” isn’t the truth - You have to test rigorously to know

5. You’ll be wrong, often, and that’s okay - Being wrong is how you learn

6. The scientific method is beautiful precisely because it’s non-emotional - It doesn’t care what you want to be true

7. There are no absolute shortcuts - You have to rigorously test to discover for yourself, or learn from those who have

8. Professional guidance accelerates learning - Trying to figure everything out yourself is expensive and slow

9. The right tools matter - Talk to Blake and find out!

What changed in my process:

After Blake’s class, armed with an of understanding internal ballistics and applying proper statistical methodology, my load development simplified dramatically.

I experimented to identify low-hanging fruit, then built a process that’s consistent, repeatable, and reliable.

My reloading now is robotically simple and boring.

And that’s perfect.

Because the goal isn’t to spend your life endlessly testing ammunition. It’s to make lots of ammunition so you can focus on what you love most: shooting.

Real testing takes time. Real testing takes dedication. Real testing costs a lot of money. At the end of the day, for many of us, handloading is a journey, not a destination. The end goal is to make lots of ammunition to focus on what we love the most; shooting. Practical shooting taught me that the correct metric is being tested, the shooter. Take solice in knowing that the people at the top have put in countless hours of work refining fundamentals. Past a certain point of advancement, you are being beaten by more consistent and skilled shooters. NOT because you don’t have the best equipment or ammunition. It’s humbling, and it’s the truth. There are no shortcuts in life, you have to work for it. How bad do you want it?

If I could go back and talk to my younger self just starting out, I’d say:

“Stop wasting money on methods that can’t deliver reliable results. Learn and implement statistics first. Understand why small samples mislead and what proper experimental design looks like. Then invest in professional instruction from someone who actually tests things properly with rigorous methodology. You’ll save money, save frustration, and learn the fundamental limits of firearms performance. Then go forth and make lots of ammo! Spend more time honing fundamantals!”

That’s why I’m recommending Blake’s courses to you.

You got a free statistics course (this curriculum), which you’ll need before talking to Blake. No, there’s no test. Yes, he will use these terms and testing methodologies. The statistical foundation you built here will let you understand and apply what Blake teaches about internal ballistics.

That combination of statistics + internal ballistics + analytical tools is what finally let me stop chasing ghosts and start making ammunition that actually works.

Course Options

Blake offers several courses depending on your experience level and goals:

For New Reloaders: Beginner Course

If you’ve never touched reloading equipment or components before, start here.

Comprehensive video instruction covering:

• Choosing components (projectiles, powder, cases, primers) for your specific application
• How propellants actually work (and why burn rate charts mislead)
• How to choose the optimal bullet for your twist rate and firearm
• What reloading gear you should buy based on YOUR needs (not what’s popular online)
• Complete setup with step-by-step video instruction
• Pressure signs - “arguably the most important video in the course” according to Blake
• Load workup methodology with proper statistical analysis of chronograph data
• Case preparation, annealing, resizing, and finishing

Format: Pre-recorded video instruction you can review at your own pace

For Applying Statistical Principles:

Advanced Load Development Class (Recommended)

This is the course I specifically recommend if you’ve completed this curriculum.

You already understand the statistics. Now you need to learn how to apply them efficiently to internal ballistics without wasting tons of money and rounds downrange.

The RAD (Reloading All Day) Method covers:

Internal Ballistics Deep Dive:

• What’s really happening with fired cartridges at a physics level
• Real barrel harmonic studies (not speculation or simulation)
• When the projectile physically exits vs. when muzzle movement happens
• Shot start pressure and identifying pressure better than traditional signs

Analytical Approaches:

• How to compare propellants analytically rather than trial and error
• Temperature stability and what it really means and how to test it
• Where to seat your projectile based on physics, not forum advice
• Bullet shape effects on dispersion
• Chamber dimensions and what to look for in custom reamers

Statistical Analysis:

• Application of statistics to reloading (building on what you learned here)
• Critical examination: “Are nodes real?” with data from controlled lab testing
• What really causes dispersion and how to minimize it
• How to avoid the classic blunders of small sample sizes

Why this course matters: Blake will walk you through all of the “What, Why’s, and How’s” of internal ballistics so you can load exactly where you need to for the most optimal performance possible for YOUR specific setup. You’ll learn to use analytical tools to predict load behavior BEFORE you shoot, dramatically reducing the number of rounds required for development.

Why Professional Instruction Matters

You Could Figure This Out Yourself

You absolutely could. Many competitive shooters have spent decades and tens of thousands of rounds developing similar expertise through trial and error.

But consider the cost:

• Components: At current prices, developing a single precision load through pure trial and error can easily consume $500-1,000 in components
• Time: Years of testing and learning from mistakes
• Missed opportunities: How many competitions, hunts, or precision shooting sessions will you miss while you’re still learning?
• Frustration: Chasing methods that don’t work because you can’t distinguish myth from reality

Professional instruction provides:

• Compressed learning curve - Learn in weeks what took others years to figure out
• Proven methodology - Start with approaches that actually work
• Personalized guidance - Get answers to YOUR specific questions about YOUR setup
• Access to tools - Learn software and analytical techniques professionals use
• Credibility check - Someone who can review your data and tell you if you’re on the right track

The investment in a course pays for itself in saved components and avoided dead ends.

What Success Looks Like

After you’ve completed statistical training and professional load development instruction, here’s what changes:

Your testing process:

• You use analytical tools to narrow down powder selection before ever firing a round
• You test with adequate sample sizes from the start (30+ rounds per condition)
• You can distinguish real effects from noise with confidence
• You stop chasing internet fads and test what matters for YOUR rifle

Your results:

• You develop loads that actually replicate across sessions
• You understand WHY your loads work, not just that they do
• You can troubleshoot problems methodically rather than guessing
• You achieve the precision your equipment is actually capable of

Your mindset:

• You’re confident in your data and methodology
• You can evaluate others’ claims critically
• You understand the limitations of what you can reasonably test
• You focus effort on variables that actually matter

Most importantly: You stop wasting time, money, and components on methods that can’t deliver reliable results.

The Path Forward

Here’s my recommended progression:

1. Solidify Your Statistical Foundation (You’re Here)

• Review the key concepts from this curriculum
• Make sure you understand why sample size matters
• Practice identifying statistical red flags in online claims

2. Invest in Professional Training

• Start with Blake’s Advanced Load Development Class if you have reloading experience
• Take the Beginner Course if you’re completely new to reloading
• Find a respected instructor to coach your shooting fundamentals

3. Apply What You Learn

• Use proper methodology from the start
• Take notes on every test session
• Build your own database of what works for your equipment
• Share your findings (with proper methodology) to help others

4. Continue Learning

• Follow data-driven sources like Reloading All Day
• Read Bryan Litz’s books (Applied Ballistics for Long Range Shooting)
• Join communities that value statistical rigor over anecdotes
• Question everything, including what you learned here

5. Help Others

• When you see new reloaders making the same mistakes you did, guide them
• Share your testing data with proper methodology documentation
• Challenge myths politely but firmly when you see them
• Point people toward resources that teach proper methodology

A Final Word on Investment

Blake’s courses aren’t free. Professional expertise never is.

But compare the cost of a course to:

• One barrel that you burned out testing ineffectively: $400-800
• Components wasted on statistically meaningless tests: $500-1,000
• A custom rifle you bought because you thought your factory rifle was the problem when it was actually your testing methodology: $3,000-5,000

Professional instruction is cheap compared to the alternative.

You’re investing in:

• Knowledge that applies to every cartridge you’ll ever load
• Methodology that works whether you’re shooting a factory rifle or a custom build
• Understanding that lets you adapt to new components, new bullets, new powders
• Confidence that your testing actually reveals truth

That’s not an expense. That’s an investment in every shooting session for the rest of your life.

Ready to Take the Next Step?

Visit Reloading All Day to explore course options.

For most readers of this curriculum, I recommend:

• Advanced Load Development Class - If you have reloading experience and want to apply statistical principles efficiently
• 1-on-1 Personal Class - If you have specific questions about your setup or want customized instruction

If you’re completely new to reloading:

• Beginner Course - Start here to build proper fundamentals from day one

Blake and his team will walk you through the “What, Why’s, and How’s” of internal ballistics so you can develop loads that actually work for YOUR specific rifle and application.

What You’ve Accomplished

Before you move forward, take a moment to recognize what you’ve learned in this curriculum:

You now understand:

• Why small samples systematically mislead
• How to design proper experiments
• What sample sizes you actually need
• How to interpret statistical results
• Why popular methods fail to deliver reliable conclusions
• What precision is realistically achievable with your equipment
• How to distinguish real effects from random variation

This knowledge is permanent.

You can’t unlearn how statistics works. From now on, when you see someone post a 3-shot group claiming they’ve “dialed in” their load, you’ll know exactly why that’s unreliable. When you see a ladder test at 600 yards identifying “nodes,” you’ll understand what they’re actually measuring (recoil management, not load quality). When you see claims that seem too good to be true, you’ll know to ask “what was the sample size?”

You’ve developed critical thinking skills that apply far beyond reloading.

The same statistical principles that govern group size estimation apply to:

• Medical research claims you read in the news
• Financial investment advice
• Product reviews and testimonials
• Scientific studies
• Basically any claim based on data

You’re now equipped to ask the hard questions:

• How do you know?
• What was the sample size?
• Did this replicate?
• Could this be random variation?
• What’s the confidence interval?

That’s valuable in every area of life.

My Hope for You

As you move forward in your reloading journey, my hope is that you:

Avoid the frustration I experienced wasting years on methods that couldn’t work

Save the money I spent on components testing ineffectively

Achieve the results you’re actually capable of with your equipment

Help others avoid the same pitfalls by sharing proper methodology

Enjoy the process of systematic testing and discovery

Stay curious and keep asking questions

And most importantly: That you develop loads you can trust, replicate, and be confident in because YOU tested them properly.

Thank You

Thank you for investing your time in this curriculum. I know it’s not easy material. Statistics isn’t sexy. Proper sample sizes aren’t quick. The truth about what’s actually achievable isn’t as exciting as the claims you see online.

But you stuck with it anyway.

That tells me you’re serious about this. You’re willing to do the work. You value truth over comfortable myths.

That’s exactly the mindset that leads to real success in precision shooting.

I’m genuinely excited to see where your journey takes you.

Now go apply what you’ve learned. Test properly. Trust your data. And when you develop a load that delivers consistent, repeatable results session after session, you’ll know it’s real, not luck.

That’s a satisfaction no internet forum hero posting cherry picked groups will ever experience.

Additional Resources

Recommended Reading:

• Bryan Litz - Applied Ballistics for Long Range Shooting (external ballistics, BC measurement)
• Bryan Litz - Accuracy and Precision for Long Range Shooting (TOP Gun research, recoil effects)
• Denton Bramwell - “The Perverse Nature of Standard Deviation” (statistical foundations)

Online Resources:

• Reloading All Day - Blake’s website with courses, blog articles, and testing data
• Applied Ballistics - Bryan Litz’s research and software
• The Science of Accuracy - Bryan Litz’s Blog

Communities That Value Data:

Look for communities where:

• People post full testing data, not just best groups
• Sample sizes are discussed and valued
• Claims are backed by methodology documentation
• Respectful disagreement based on data is welcomed
• Myths are challenged politely but firmly

Avoid communities where:

• Best groups are treated as definitive proof
• Anyone questioning popular methods is attacked
• “I’ve been reloading for 30 years so I know” is considered valid evidence
• Sample size is never mentioned
• Extraordinary claims require no extraordinary evidence

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Course Complete

Congratulations. You’ve completed the Data-Driven Reloading statistical curriculum.

You’re now equipped with the knowledge to test properly, interpret results correctly, and achieve the precision your equipment is actually capable of.

The next step is yours to take.

Whether that’s professional instruction, independent testing with proper methodology, or simply applying these principles to evaluate claims you encounter—you now have the tools to succeed.

Good luck, shoot straight, and trust your data.

— Justin